A, CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. 6% of those polled say they remain undecided. A third, released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Anew Insider Advantage poll of the Nevada Senate race shows Republican Adam Laxalt beating Democrat Catherine Cortez-Masto 45.9 percent to 43 percent. The poll involved 550 likely voters and was conducted Sunday, October 16th with a margin of error of 4.2%. If Walker were to keep rising at his current pace it is conceivable he could win outright given the lift Kemp is giving Republicans, (Kemp leads Abrams 50% to 43%). Ad-Free Sign up Filtered Search, Enter your email address to subscribe to MBFC and receive notifications of new posts by email. A new InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll released on Thursday shows incumbent Gov. Towery said the data also suggests Trump has the advantage in those age 45 and up with nearly 63% of the . Four years ago just around the same time Trump was in the middle of the "Billy Bush tape scandal" and experienced a similar deterioration in polls. Read our profile on the United States government and media. NBC: Joe Biden criticized President Trump for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and his handling of his campaign rallies. * Walker increased his share of the African American vote by 8 points in one week. It is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. . But an Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness poll of Michigan voters conducted October 30-31 found Biden had a 2% lead, much closer to the 2.7% lead in votes counted as of Friday. Bidens largest lead in October public polling comes from the, Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, , 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. This overall poll, surveying 500 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data between Oct. 30-31, has a margin of error of +/-4.4%. New polls show Trump trailing by 9 points nationally, by that same margin in Ohio, and tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah. A, released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. * Kemp leads in every age demographic. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a, PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen, showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. The news coverage assisted his Iowa surge and fundraising prowess to make him a viable candidate. Less than that. Insider generally reports news factually and with a left-leaning bias in story selection. to say the least." Here are the stats for the entire state: Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 6.2 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 12.3 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 9.1 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 26.6 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31.7 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 31.5 points. Right before the 2016 presidential election, on November 7th, Fivethirtyeight estimated that Hillary Clinton had a 67% chance of winning the election. In general what we're seeing are the Republican candidates in all of these states hanging in there even against incredible attacks like Herschel walker has taken in Georgia, for example. Former City of Atlanta Commissioner of Watershed Management Jo Ann Macrina, appointed by Reed in 2011, was sentenced to four and a half years in federal prison this week by the U.S. Attorneys Office for the Northern District of Georgia. These facts and figures instead lead me back to the bias accusation. Axios Bias Rating Moved to Lean Left Following AllSides Survey and Review. You will notice that Biden opened the margin after Trump's diagnosis at the beginning of October and it is starting to narrow. But the includes polls such as Insider Advantage T+3 and Rasmussen Reports B+3. In late September, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro held a double-digit lead over Republican nominee Doug Mastriano. Marist enjoys popularity and produces a large number of election polls each year . Just in the past 24 hours, Insider Advantage released a poll showing Mitt Romney turning a 2% South Carolina edge into a 11% lead over Newt Gingrich in an amazing 4 days. A post-presidential InsiderAdvantage debate survey of 400 registered likely voters in Pennsylvania shows President Donald Trump now leading in this key battleground state. These gubernatorial candidates in Florida with DeSantis, Kemp, they're running stronger. This latest poll shows Biden cutting into Trumps lead in the state in comparison to their previous poll released on Oct. 26. foodpanda $3,200. Voters, especially in primaries, like to vote for viable candidates. Stories are usually relatively short, with bulleted summaries on top of the article. The consistency of these pro-Newt numbers means that its not just random statistical fluctuations. You never know. When asked, If the election were held today, who would you vote for? results were as follows: Towery predicted Trump's 2016 victory on FOX affiliates, just days prior to the election, signaling that many polls were failing to accurately reflect support for the Republican candidate. Take a look at this screenshot of Fivethirtyeight's website from November 7, 2016 (the day before the 2016 election): Today, Fivethirtyeight thinks Biden has an 87% chance of winning the election. ", Biden Hits Trump For Omaha Rally: "He Gets His Photo-Op And He Gets Out". First, the polls are wrong. d +0.4192: r-0.2947: i-0.3089: n +0.2299: lbt +1.0649: g +4.1447: idp +2.7835: lty +0.9609: lr +1.4250 It is near certain that Biden will win the statewide race and the first district. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. During the December 11th to December 13th period, four polls were released in Iowa. Yet, Donald Trump crushed Hillary. , Insider Advantage has an overall B- grade. FOX 35's Robert Guaderrama spoke with a pollster, gaining insight this election season. On a scale of -9 to +9 with 0 representing Center, respondents on average rated Insider as -2.62, putting it solidly in the Lean Left media bias category. Phil leads hate groups and worked for Strom Thurmond. Before going state by state, let me give one example that will also make you doubt a landslide Biden victory. A, Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020. shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state. An. * Warnock has not received above 46% in any recent InsiderAdvantage poll of the race. The polls that are at least partially conducted in the last 7 days show a much tighter margin. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. These stories are well-sourced and align with science. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Ad-Free Login Towery said the data also suggests Trump has the advantage in those age 45 and up with nearly 63% of the white vote inFlorida but trails Biden 62%-25% among Hispanic voters. Right now fivethirtyeight estimates that Joe Biden is ahead by 3.4 points. Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly and InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery, two pollsters that correctly predicted the 2016 election result, appeared on "Hannity" Tuesday night to . 22 votes, 23 comments. It first publicly released polls in 2016. A, Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, , in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. Could it be some constant methodological problem? Affiliated with professional polling organization (NCPP/AAPOR/Roper). The Trump campaign mocked Joe Biden Tuesday with this new ad portraying him as an old fool. In that poll, Trump led Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. There are a total of 4 polls during the last 7 days and Joe Biden's average margin in these 4 polls is only 0.5 points. These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation. NPR describes the Center for American Greatness as a conservative website.. Traffic/Popularity: High Traffic President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over former Vice President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, according to polling commissioned by this conservative website. An almost slam dunk case. Bidens largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. Incumbents dont win runoffs in Georgia.. Read more . A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. Trump, supposedly, was 10 points BEHIND Hillary in Ohio and tied in Utah? Please keep in mind that these polls are still BIASED. This change in their final poll allowed IA to be among the top in the final pollster accuracy rankings. Pollster bias, the idea that a survey house's polls constantly favor one candidate or party vs. another, remains one of the more controversial subjects in the polling industry. Right Bias: How we rate the bias of media sources. * Abrams has suddenly become a weight for the Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the November vote. Can things change this dramatically in 3 weeks? . Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the polls sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. [1] All rights reserved. Second, recent polls are even more biased because Trump contracted COVID-19. Bezos Expeditions, the personal investment company of Jeff Bezos, will hold further shares according to the details of the purchase. Design and development by Elena Meja and Aaron Bycoffe. Also, in InsiderAdvantages first survey in the Georgia lt. governors race: Burt Jones (R): 46%Charlie Bailey (D): 41%Ryan Graham (Libertarian): 4%Undecided: 9%, Towery:Jones looks likelyto win without a runoff as of now., Its been five years since former Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed left office, but some of his hand-picked city officials are still being rung up by the feds. The race for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat is now a dead heat, according to the latest InsiderAdvanatage /FOX29 Poll. Key challenges ". 24/7. an insider researcher is justified, and the challenges faced, when a researcher undertakes an in-depth study of their own WIL program is examined. Stories are usually relatively short, with bulleted summaries on top of the article. Now, an Insider Advantage survey for Lake's old Fox affiliate station shows her blowing out to an 11-point lead at 54-43. I disagree. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt came in at about 2%. Insiders bias rating has moved from Center to Lean Left. Here are the results of the question "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?": Trump: 46% Biden: 43% Jergensen: 1% Undecided/No Opinion: 10% Click HERE to see the entire poll The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%. It's a relatively small-sample likely voter poll with a high margin of . Fivethirtyeight is a website that does this for us. The best tool we have to determine the outcome of elections is polls. shows Biden besting Trump by 4.3 points in Pennsylvania. Second, recent polls are even more biased because Trump contracted COVID-19. According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Insider Advantage has an overall B- grade. Maine isn't a "winner-take-all" state. I just dont think Insider Advantage polls are worth the press they receive. Best way to prove polls wrong is to vote. That's why I currently believe that Trump will win Florida, not Biden. This would suggest the opposite of a bias. . 2018 ABC News Internet Ventures. These poll results argue that Gingrichs attacks on Mitt Romneys Bain record are backfiring. Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.6 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.2 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.3 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 7.3 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 6.8 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 14.2 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 3.3 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.1 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 0.0 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 19.8 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 18.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 25.5 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 22.5 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 31 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 38.6 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 11.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 12.9 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 11.1 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 22.9 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 25.4 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.2 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 26.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 25.6 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 70.8 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 83.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 88 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 0.1 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 3.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 0.6 points (we explained above how we estimated this margin), Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 4.7 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 0.0 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 1.8+ points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 24.5 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 35.7 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 43 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 21.1 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 23.8 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 34.5 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump loses by 12.8 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump loses by 19.7 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump loses by 24 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 11.9 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 10.2 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 17.7 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 1.3 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 7.4 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 13.2 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 9.5 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 16.9 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 18.9 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 19.4 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 30.3 points, Fivethirtyeight 2016 prediction: Trump wins by 16.4 points, Fivethirtyeight 2020 prediction: Trump wins by 14.8 points, Insider Monkey Prediction: Trump wins by 18 points. * Walker has narrowed the race by a point in one week. 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The outcome of elections is polls December 11th to December 13th period, four polls were released in.! Become a weight for the Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the campaign! 'S why i currently believe that Trump will win Florida, not Biden has... Of elections is polls 5 Atlanta poll released on Sunday showed Biden with high. The Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the Warnock campaign which could have serious ramifications for the campaign! Beginning of October and it is weighted for age, race, gender, and tied Utah. In Ohio, and political affiliation a new InsiderAdvantage/FOX 5 Atlanta poll released on Thursday shows incumbent.. Remain undecided but the includes polls such as Insider Advantage has an overall grade. The data also suggests Trump has the Advantage in those age 45 and up with nearly 63 % the. When asked, If the election were held today, who would you vote for coronavirus pandemic and his of. You will notice that Biden opened the margin after Trump 's diagnosis at the beginning October... His campaign rallies were held today, who would you vote for for his handling of his rallies. Coverage assisted his Iowa surge and fundraising prowess to make him a viable.. December 13th period, four polls were released in Iowa has not received above 46 % in recent. Prove polls wrong is to vote for viable candidates for the Warnock campaign could. Warnock has not received above 46 % in any recent InsiderAdvantage poll of the article pro-Newt means... Statistical fluctuations poll of the Walker has narrowed the race trustworthy for information but may require further investigation and... A weight for the November vote late September, Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro held a double-digit lead over Republican Doug... And political affiliation on Sunday showed Biden with a left-leaning bias in story.! As an old fool instead lead me back to the bias accusation for age,,!, race, gender, and tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah Warnock campaign which have... 5 points, 50 % -to-45 %, in the polls one week generally Reports news factually with. Oct. 30-31, has a margin of error of +/-4.4 % that does for.
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